2011年1月23日 星期日

Weighing the Week Ahead: Is the Market Now Priced for Perfection?

With a stumble in tech stocks this week, nearly everyone is asking two questions:
1. Is the long-awaited correction upon us?
2. Will it be a normal pull back, with buyers stepping in, or the start of a big decline?
I am a long-time Greenberg fan, back from his SF Chronicle days. He does good investigative reporting. His sources have always been mostly bears and short-sellers, so he has needed to learn how to use this information without being manipulated. In general he does a good job in navigating these waters.Two French gendarmes in navy blue Polo Shirts stand near the bookshop to exchange greetings in hushed tones.
The piece I am citing raises some issues. How typical are the stocks cited? Let us suppose that we have a stock with forward earnings of $1.50 and earnings growth of 40%. Some investors might give this a P/E multiple of 40 (a PEG ratio of only one) and figure it is a $60 stock. Now let us suppose that the stock reports a quarter of 30 cents instead of the expected 35 cents. Two bad things happen:
1. The expected forward earnings come down a notch -- perhaps to $1.35.
2. The growth rate goes to (maybe) 25% instead of 40.
Now the growth investor does a 25 multiple on $1.35 and it is a $34 stock.The man who helped Jordan win jordan 6 rings as a player wants to be a coach, and though inexperienced, In growth stocks, an earnings miss affects both the earnings forecast and the growth rate. This changes the multiple accorded by the market.
A stock price that reflects maximum potential earnings and growth is the definition of "priced to perfection."
Greenberg came up with some examples,It is an email notification service that notifies buyers about the recent additions to the used inflatable boats for sale available with the company. but are these typical? And what about the "weak hands" thesis?
I'll conclude with my own answer, but first let me do my regular weekly review of data.
Background on "Weighing the Week Ahead"
There are many good services that do a complete list of every event for the upcoming week, so that is not my mission.Larger pets need to be checked and require a large pet carrier non-collapsible carrier and easy access to water. Instead, I try to single out what will be most important in the coming week. If I am correct, my theme for the week is what we will be watching on TV and reading in the mainstream media. It is a focus on what I think is important for my trading and client portfolios.
In most of my articles I build a careful case for each point. My purpose here is different.exactly, the cobbler favored for his sky-high heels decided to take the plunge into men's shoes. This weekly piece emphasizes my opinions about what is really important and how to put the news in context. Others will disagree. That is what makes a market!

沒有留言:

張貼留言